With 17 major candidates, the Democratic 2020 presidential field is one of the largest, most competitive, and most unpredictable in modern history.
We’ve combined INSIDER’s polling and results of Morning Consult’s daily survey of the 2020 Democratic primary to create a power ranking of 2020 candidates.
With stricter requirements to make the next rounds of debates and a big fundraising deadline coming up, the field is quickly stratifying into the top and lower tiers — and is getting much smaller very quickly.
This week, we upgraded Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Tom Steyer, but downgraded Sen. Cory Booker and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke.
Here’s what our power ranking looks like as of September 27, 2019.
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With 17 major candidates in the race, the Democratic 2020 presidential field is set to be one of the largest, most competitive, and most unpredictable in modern history.
To help make sense of where all these candidates stand, INSIDER has been conducting a recurring SurveyMonkey Audience national poll. You can download every poll here, down to the individual respondent data.
At this point in the race, we’re mainly interested in using our polling to figure out:
What percentage of Democratic voters are familiar with each candidate in the first place.
How Democrats rate each candidate’s chances of beating President Donald Trump in the general election.
If a given candidate were to drop out of the race, who that candidate’s supporters would flock to next.
We’ve combined INSIDER’s polling and results of Morning Consult’s daily survey of the 2020 Democratic primary to create a power ranking of declared and potential 2020 candidates.
With stricter requirements to make the next rounds of debates and a big quarterly fundraising deadline coming up on September 30, the field is quickly stratifying into the top and lower tiers — and also getting much smaller.
Here’s what our ranking looks like as of September 27, 2019.
17: Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana
Bullock raised $1 million in the first 24 hours of his candidacy and has been able to attract some sizable crowds and support from statewide and local politicians in Iowa.
Despite his strong opening week and qualifying for the July Democratic debate, Bullock is still at 1% in Morning Consult’s polling and 0% in early states.
Bullock had a solid performance in the late-July Democratic debates, earning him a promotion to the top 15 in August. But having failed to qualify for the fall debates and lacking significant support, it’s hard to see Bullock’s candidacy staying viable for much longer.
As the race narrows down, it makes less and less sense for Bullock to stay in the race with an upcoming Senate race in his state and numerous other opportunities he could pursue, landing him in last place in our ranking.
16: Former Rep. John Delaney of Maryland
Delaney enjoys a surprising amount of name recognition but has been unable to translate that into support in a meaningful way.
He’s among those at 1% in Morning Consult polls. According to INSIDER’s polling, he’s known by about 20% of Democrats, but he has been unable to build a base of support having to compete with former VP Joe Biden for moderate voters.
We moved Delaney to the bottom of our ranking in early August he was thoroughly walloped by Sen. Elizabeth Warren in the July Democratic debates.
Warren had the line of the night in criticizing him, saying, “I don’t understand why anybody goes to all the trouble of running for president of the United States just to talk about what we really can’t do and shouldn’t fight for.”
But we dumped Delaney up two spots on September 6 since he, as a former congressman with virtually unlimited campaign funds, has nothing to lose by staying in.
15: Marianne Williamson
Despite having one of the longest-running campaigns, Williamson, a motivational speaker and New Age spiritual guru, has not been capable of consolidating support or name recognition.
Williamson raised $1.5 million in 2019’s first quarter and earned the 65,000 individual donors required to make the first Democratic debates.
Despite her low name recognition and lack of political experience, Williamson debated in both the June and July Democratic debates and made a huge splash — making her an online sensation and the subject of countless jokes and memes.
But that online enthusiasm hasn’t translated much into the real world. Williamson hasn’t cracked 1% in Morning Consult all year, and her chances of qualifying for any future Democratic debates are next to nothing.
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